貿(mào)易和增長的實(shí)證研究政策建議在哪里？【外文翻譯】_第1頁
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1、1本科畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯本科畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯外文題目：外文題目：Theempiricsoftradegrowth:wherearethepolicyrecommendations出處：處：InternationalEconomicsEconomicPolicy作者：者：ClauseWaldeChristinaWood原文：文：Theempiricsoftradegrowth:wherearethepolicyrecommendations

2、KlausWaldeChristinaWoodAbstractExistingliteraturerepeatedlydocumentedastrongcrelationbetweentradegrowth.Ithasalsoshownacausaleffectofimpts(thoughnotnecessarilyexpts)ongrowthinsimultaneousequationmodelsbuttoalesserextenti

3、nGrangercausalitytests.Exptimpttaxeshavesometimesbeenfoundtonegativelyaffectgrowth.Drawingpolicyconclusionsfromthesegeneralfindingsfaparticularcountryisdifficultnotonlybecauseofthecontradictyresultsbutalsobecauseofpotent

4、ialsecondbestwldeffectstheimpliedendogeneityoftradepolicy.Policyrecommendationsfaspecificcountryrequireacarefulanalysisofmarketinstitutionalarrangementscannotbebasedontheexistingcrosscountryliterature.1.IntroductionThere

5、isanongoingdebateonwhetherincreasedtradespursgrowthindustrializationwhetheritiseconomicgrowththatenablestradetoincrease.Theimplicitquestionwithrespecttodevelopingcountriesiswhetherthemajsourcesofgrowthindustrializationar

6、eexternal(i.e.learningthroughtradegenerallyexptsimptsspecifically)internal(i.e.throughhumanphysicalcapitalinvestmentincreasedresearchdevelopment).OnonesideofthedebatethephenomenalincreaseintradeexptsinEastAsiaiscitedasth

7、esourceofEastAsia’srapidindustrialization3thispaperbywkingoutthepolicyimplicationsthatcanbedrawnfromthesestudies.Aswewillshowrecommendingpurefmsoftradepolicy–freetradeimptprotectionexptpromotion–wouldbeonweakempiricalthe

8、eticalgrounds.Thereviewfindsasurprisinglackofconvincingevidencethattradeexptpoliciescanbeusedtogeneratehighergrowthrates.Interestinglypreciouslittleisknownontradepolicygrowthlinksdespitetheextensivewkundertakenontheissue

9、.Theempiricalliteraturetherefemaynotbeusedtojustifypolicypreionsoftradeliberalizationimptsubstitutionexptpromotion.Severalreasonsunderlieourfindings.Firstitisnotiouslydifficulttofindsimplesummarystatisticsthatcapturethee

10、ssenceoftariffnontariffbarriersthatarecomparableacrosscountriesovertime.Asaconsequencedirectapproachestoassesstheimplicationsoftradepolicyongrowtharerare.Secondresearchershavebeenunabletodisentangletheimpactsoftradepolic

11、yfromtheeffectsofotherpolicies(suchassoundmacroeconomicmanagement)whichtendtobeimplementedsimultaneouslywithtradepolicymeasures.Thirdmanyempiricalstudiesomittospecifytheeticalframewksonwhichtobasetheempiricalmodelingrend

12、eringtheirfindingsdifficulttointerpret.Finallyindirectanalysesoftradepolicyimplicationsongrowth(thevastmajityoftheliterature)utilizemethodologiesthathaveseriouslimitationsyieldresultsthatareambiguous(e.g.causalitybetween

13、exptsgrowthmayrunineitherdirection)arehighlysensitivetomodelspecifications.Indertoinvestigatetheextenttowhichempiricalfindingsallowunambiguouspolicyconclusionsoneneedstohaveseveraltheeticalpredictionsinmind.Sect.2willthe

14、refepresentanoverviewofrelevanttheeticalresultslinkingtradegrowth.Sect.3presentsedempiricalpapersthecrelationscausalitiestheyfind.Wefocusonfivebroadmethodologicalgroupingsthathavebeenusedintheliterature:aggregatecrosscou

15、ntryOLSregressionswithtradevariablesinstrumentalvariableregressionssimultaneousequationspaneldatamodelsGrangercausalityapproachesaggregatecrosscountryOLSregressionswithexogenouspolicyvariablesmicroeconomicstudiesoffirmle

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